Why Are EB-1A & EB-2 NIW Approval Rates Declining?

Both the EB-1A (Extraordinary Ability) and EB-2 NIW (National Interest Waiver) green card categories have been important immigration paths to permanent residence in the U.S. in recent years.

In 2025 and into 2026, however, we have seen approval rates for both visas drop significantly.

This is not a minor statistical fluctuation. Q4 2025 was the first quarter on record where USCIS denied more EB-2 NIW petitions than it approved.

Understanding why approval rates are falling and what USCIS is now looking for is essential for anyone planning to file for these visas in 2026 or beyond.

What the numbers show with EB-1A and EB-2 NIW visas

Both the EB-1A and EB-2 NIW have experienced sharp declines in approval rates since 2025, which is a statistical turning point for these visa classifications.

EB-1A approval rate trends

• The EB-1A approval rate stood at approximately 70.5% in FY 2023, before declining to roughly 60.6% in FY 2024.
• After recovering to 74.9% in Q1 FY 2025 and 72.7% in Q2, the rate fell again to approximately 67% in Q3 FY 2025, the lowest level in three years.
• Q4 2025 saw an EB-1A-specific approval rate of just 53.4%, dragging the full FY 2025 figure to 66.9%.
• Third-party tracking data puts the EB-1A approval rate at 43% for regularly processed petitions in February 2026, up from a low of 31% in September 2025.

EB-2 NIW approval rate trends

• EB-2 NIW approval rates stood above 90% as recently as FY 2022; by FY 2025, the approval rate had fallen to 55.2%.
• The year was highly volatile: Q1 came in at 62.8%, Q2 at 67.3%, Q3 at 54.0%, and Q4 collapsed to a historic low of 35.7%.
• Early 2026 case tracking data shows regular processing rates recovering to approximately 44% as of March 2026, though official FY 2026 Q1 USCIS data has not yet been published.\

The NIW backlog has grown by more than 7,300% between FY 2022 and FY 2025, with processing times increasing markedly to around 24 months.

Why are EB-1A approval rates declining?

Cases similar to those being approved before 2025 are being denied now. This applies to both EB-1A and EB-2 NIW visas, where meeting the basic criteria is, apparently, no longer sufficient.

The EB-1A standard requires an applicant to satisfy at least three of the ten regulatory criteria (e.g., awards, published work, critical roles, high salary, etc.).

• Checking three boxes is now the floor, not the ceiling. USCIS has leaned heavily on the final merits step to deny cases where the petitioner technically checks three boxes but the quality of the evidence is thin.
• Officers are demanding more compelling evidence that the applicant’s overall record demonstrates sustained acclaim at the top of their field, rather than the minimum criteria being met.

The number of EB-1A visa applications being filed has never been higher, rising approximately 50% year-over-year in FY 2025. This has led to record backlogs, possibly incentivizing USCIS to tighten scrutiny and apply stricter standards, especially to marginal cases that are increasingly being denied.

Another of the reasons for decreasing approval rates with EB-1A visas is the role of artificial intelligence in adjudication and application reviews:

• Machine-learning tools like ELIS Evidence Classifier are being used by USCIS to sort and tag submitted documents before a human officer reviews them.
• Poorly organized evidence packages, mislabeled exhibits, or documents that don’t fit expected categories are more likely to be overlooked or trigger requests for evidence (RFEs) in this environment.
• The presentation quality of an application now affects outcomes independently of the underlying strength of a case.

Why are EB-2 NIW approval rates declining?

One of the main reasons why EB-2 NIW approval rates are declining is a stricter application of the “Dhanasar Framework” by USCIS.

Every petition is evaluated under the three-prong test established in Matter of Dhanasar (2016):

1. The proposed endeavor has substantial merit and national importance.
2. The applicant is well-positioned to advance it.
3. It would benefit the US to waive the normal job offer and labor certification requirements.

When assessing applications, officers are placing greater emphasis on measurable US impact and less weight on forward-looking potential or non-specific, sector-wide influence.

Common reasons for pushback from the government include:

• Endeavors that are too vague.
• Reference letters that praise the applicant without addressing national importance.
• A failure to connect individual credentials to the specific proposed work.

Certain fields like technology consulting and general research face particularly heightened scrutiny and a tougher Dhanasar prong analysis.

Some petitioners for EB02 NIW visas are even falling at the first hurdle that requires a true “profession” with at least a US bachelor’s degree (or equivalent) as the minimum entry requirement.

As with EB-1A visas, the increased use of AI in screening applications before an officer even gets to see the documentation is adding to the challenges that applicants face.

How can a US immigration attorney help you get your EB visa approved?

Anyone hoping for a green card rather than a temporary non-immigrant work visa, such as an O-1 visa, should consider hiring a seasoned immigration attorney to manage the application process.

Petitions for EB visas that would likely have been approved with moderate evidence two years ago now require:

• Stronger, highly consistent documentation.
• More compelling expert and recommendation letters.
• Specific and concrete information on proposed endeavors.
• A highly cohesive narrative.

This can be challenging, especially without the assistance of a U.S. immigration attorney familiar with the recent changes, aware of the increase in applications with pushback from the government, and able to recommend strategies to overcome the challenges presented.

“Request for evidence” rates are rising in tandem with pushback from the government, meaning that even petitions that aren’t outright denied face additional delays and costs.

Why the Right Legal Team Matters More Than Ever

Declining approval rates hit hardest on petitions that were assembled rather than built: filings that meet the letter of the criteria without making a persuasive case for why the applicant belongs in an extraordinary category.

EB-2 NIW approvals fell to 35.7% nationally in Q4 2025. Immigration Desk has maintained a 99% approval rate across three decades of employment-based petitions. Who prepares your petition can be the difference between approval and denial.

30 Years of Focus

Attorney Anu Gupta has practiced immigration law exclusively for 30 years: employment- and family-based cases, nothing else. That’s three decades of watching how USCIS standards shift and where petitions quietly fail before an officer raises an objection. Her team of eight works only on EB-1 and NIW cases, a level of specialization few generalist firms can match.

We Build the Case Before We File It

The real work happens before filing. Attorney Gupta’s team finds the weak points, the thin criteria, the evidence that won’t hold up, and works with the client to fix them, including identifying the right peers to write recommendation letters. Clients who start early often file a stronger petition than they could have built alone six months later.

We Don’t Give Up on Difficult Cases

Immigration Desk has adjusted its drafting process for one reality: AI systems now screen petitions before a human officer sees them, and the firm drafts accordingly to cut down on unnecessary requests for evidence. When an RFE does arrive, the team breaks it into its component objections and argues each one until USCIS has no argument left.

Start With a Conversation

EB-1A and EB-2 NIW remain viable paths to permanent residence for candidates who qualify. What’s changed is the margin for error. In the boxing ring, you can’t defeat someone who keeps getting back up. Contact Immigration Desk today for a free consultation.